Leaderboards

View team rankings and model performance for period-aggregated and weekly RPSS (see leaderboards guide).
You can filter results by competitive period, week, forecast window, and variable(s), click a team name for details on participants and models, and click an RPSS to view corresponding forecasts in the ECMWF-hosted sub-seasonal AI forecasting portal (see portal guide).

Please note:

  • Teams are ranked according to their best performing model.
  • Models appear in the period-aggregated leaderboards only if they have submitted forecasts for the selected variable and forecast window for every week up to the chosen week.
  • A score of 0.0 indicates a climatology-based forecast (i.e. a uniform 20% probability assigned to each quintile bin).
  • Leaderboards and model scores evolution graphs also include dynamical model skill based on forecast data from the S2S Database. These entries are not associated with a registered team and thus appear without a rank (“N/A”). Details regarding forecast and reforecast configuration can be found on the following confluence page.
  • Automated regional forecast evaluations is available on the following confluence page to provide model developers insights into geographical areas where forecasts may underperform.

Competitive period and competition week (forecast initialisation date)
Forecast window
First forecast window:
Days 19 to 25
Second forecast window:
Days 26 to 32
Variable
Variable-averaged
(tas, mslp, pr)
Near-surface (2m)
temperature (tas)
Mean sea level pressure
(mslp)
Precipitation
(pr)

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Period-aggregated RPSSs

Team Rank Model Rank Team name
Model name
Period-aggregated RPSSs
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Select up to 10 teams.

Select up to 10 models. The choises are structured as follows:
Please note: A score of 0.0 corresponds to climatology (i.e. a uniform 20% forecast for each quintile bin). Values above 0 indicate better skill compared to climatology, while values below 0 indicate worse skill.

Weekly RPSSs

Team Rank Model Rank Team name
Model name
Weekly RPSSs
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Select up to 10 teams.

Select up to 10 models. The choises are structured as follows:
Please note: A score of 0.0 corresponds to climatology (i.e. a uniform 20% forecast for each quintile bin). Values above 0 indicate better skill compared to climatology, while values below 0 indicate worse skill.